# Resilience brief: Turkana (Lodwar), Kenya

Issued 2026-10-12 00:10 UTC. Snapshot 851409c92c71. Public data only; demonstration product.

## Bottom line

- Turkana (Lodwar), Kenya, is assessed at HIGH resilience risk: 64 of 100, with climate data through 2026-09-29. [1][2]
- The main driver is food stress (76), followed by water (68). [1][2]
- Over the next 30 days the composite is expected to be 44 (80% range 36 to 60) by 2026-10-29, assuming current hazards and structural conditions persist. [1]

## Key indicators

- 90-day rainfall index -3.1 SD vs the 1991-2020 normal for this time of year (0.9 mm vs a 40.4 mm median, 2% of normal). [1]
- Growing-period rainfall (30/90-day blend) index -2.4 SD vs the 1991-2020 normal for this time of year (last 30 days 0.3 mm vs a 7.5 mm median). [1]
- 36.8% of the population is undernourished (2023). [2]
- Cereal yield is 1,758 kg/ha (2023); low yields leave little buffer against a poor season. [2]
- 34% of people lack basic drinking water service (2024). [2]

## Anomalies flagged

- Rainfall deficit: 90-day index -3.1 SD. [1]

## Outlook and confidence

- The 90-day rainfall index is -3.1 SD today and is forecast at -1.1 SD by 2026-10-29 (80% interval -2.6 SD to +0.7 SD). [1]
- The 14-day heat index is +1.1 SD today and is forecast at +0.1 SD by 2026-10-29 (80% interval -1.2 SD to +1.4 SD). [1]
- In 138 hindcasts from 2021 on, this method's 30-day rainfall-index error averaged 0.52 SD against 0.82 SD for a no-change forecast. Calibrated 80% intervals covered 96% of held-out cases since 2024-05-15. [1]

## Data gaps and caveats

- Data completeness for this area is 100% of expected indicators.
- Structural indicators are national averages and date from 2022 to 2024; they do not capture local conditions inside the area. [2]
- Hazard alerts are from the snapshot of 2026-10-02 08:04 UTC; the live feed was not used. [3]
- Generated from templates in demo mode (no language model). Each figure is computed from the cited public data. Analyst review is required; this is not an official assessment.

## References

1. NASA POWER daily point data (precipitation, daily max temperature), NASA Langley Research Center. https://power.larc.nasa.gov/api/temporal/daily/point?parameters=PRECTOTCORR,T2M_MAX&community=AG&longitude=35.6&latitude=3.12&start=19910101&end=20261002&format=JSON (retrieved 2026-10-02 07:10 UTC; 1991-01-01 to 2026-09-29 (API v2.10.0); SHA-256 dac03cc8aedef878...)
2. World Development Indicators API, The World Bank. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/SOM;KEN;NER;HND;HTI;IRQ;JOR;PAK;PHL/indicator/ER.H2O.FWST.ZS?format=json&mrnev=1&per_page=100 (retrieved 2026-10-02 08:03 UTC; 7 requests, first: World Bank ER.H2O.FWST.ZS (2022 to 2022 (updated 2026-07-13)); SHA-256 45a628a57d45292d...)
3. Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System event feed, European Commission JRC and UN OCHA. https://www.gdacs.org/gdacsapi/api/events/geteventlist/SEARCH?eventlist=DR&fromDate=2026-09-02&toDate=2026-10-02&alertlevel=green;orange;red (retrieved 2026-10-02 08:03 UTC; 6 requests, first: GDACS DR events, last 30 days (12 current DR events); SHA-256 7b8a38cf2bc235a5...)