# Resilience brief: Maricopa County, AZ, United States

Issued 2026-10-11 23:30 UTC. Snapshot 851409c92c71. Public data only; demonstration product.

## Bottom line

- Maricopa County, AZ, United States, is assessed at SEVERE resilience risk: 72 of 100, with climate data through 2026-09-29. [3][1]
- The main driver is acute hazard stress (98), followed by energy (36). [3][1]
- Over the next 30 days the composite is expected to be 62 (80% range 62 to 65) by 2026-10-29, assuming current hazards and structural conditions persist. [1]

## Key indicators

- 7-day mean flow of 2,005 cfs is at the 99th percentile for the date at USGS 09498500: high water. [3]
- FEMA NRI heat wave risk score of 100.0 for Maricopa County, AZ. [5]
- FEMA National Risk Index drought risk score for Maricopa County, AZ is 97.7 (national percentile score). [5]
- 30-day rainfall 117.8 mm is +3.1 SD above normal (21.2 mm median): saturated ground raises flood potential. [1]
- Community resilience score of 18.0 for Maricopa County, AZ (higher is more resilient). [5]

## Anomalies flagged

- Rainfall surplus: 30-day index +3.1 SD. [1]
- Cold anomaly: 14-day Tmax -1.9 SD. [1]
- High streamflow: 99th percentile. [3]

## Outlook and confidence

- The 90-day rainfall index is +3.1 SD today and is forecast at +1.5 SD by 2026-10-29 (80% interval +1.5 SD to +2.5 SD). [1]
- The 14-day heat index is -1.9 SD today and is forecast at +0.0 SD by 2026-10-29 (80% interval -0.9 SD to +1.1 SD). [1]
- In 138 hindcasts from 2021 on, this method's 30-day rainfall-index error averaged 0.42 SD against 0.62 SD for a no-change forecast. Calibrated 80% intervals covered 84% of held-out cases since 2024-05-15. [1]

## Data gaps and caveats

- Data completeness for this area is 100% of expected indicators.
- Hazard alerts are from the snapshot of 2026-10-02 08:04 UTC; the live feed was not used. [2][4]
- Generated from templates in demo mode (no language model). Each figure is computed from the cited public data. Analyst review is required; this is not an official assessment.

## References

1. NASA POWER daily point data (precipitation, daily max temperature), NASA Langley Research Center. https://power.larc.nasa.gov/api/temporal/daily/point?parameters=PRECTOTCORR,T2M_MAX&community=AG&longitude=-112.07&latitude=33.45&start=19910101&end=20261002&format=JSON (retrieved 2026-10-02 07:13 UTC; 1991-01-01 to 2026-09-29 (API v2.10.0); SHA-256 ddc788d3f811e990...)
2. Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System event feed, European Commission JRC and UN OCHA. https://www.gdacs.org/gdacsapi/api/events/geteventlist/SEARCH?eventlist=DR&fromDate=2026-09-02&toDate=2026-10-02&alertlevel=green;orange;red (retrieved 2026-10-02 08:03 UTC; 6 requests, first: GDACS DR events, last 30 days (12 current DR events); SHA-256 7b8a38cf2bc235a5...)
3. USGS Water Services daily values (NWIS), U.S. Geological Survey. https://waterservices.usgs.gov/nwis/dv/?format=json&sites=09498500&parameterCd=00060&statCd=00003&startDT=1991-01-01 (retrieved 2026-10-02 07:55 UTC; 4 requests, first: USGS 09498500 SALT RIVER NEAR ROOSEVELT, AZ (to 2026-09-30 (525 reference windows)); SHA-256 79b2c833d8dc19b9...)
4. National Weather Service alerts API, NOAA National Weather Service. https://api.weather.gov/alerts/active?point=33.45,-112.07 (retrieved 2026-10-02 08:03 UTC; 0 active; SHA-256 256ea762d8f52f8d...)
5. National Risk Index, counties, FEMA. https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/arcgis/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query?where=STCOFIPS%20IN%20('04013'%2C'48141'%2C'37051'%2C'51710')&outFields=COUNTY,STATEABBRV,STCOFIPS,RISK_SCORE,RISK_RATNG,SOVI_SCORE,RESL_SCORE,DRGT_RISKS,HWAV_RISKS,IFLD_RISKS,HRCN_RISKS&returnGeometry=false&f=json (retrieved 2026-10-02 08:03 UTC; 4 counties; SHA-256 94efaab6a98c2e08...)