Resilience risk watchlist
13 areas scored on water, food, energy and acute-hazard stress. Climate data through 2026-09-29; snapshot 851409c92c71 built 2026-10-02 08:04 UTC.
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Areas by risk
Tiers: Low under 30, Elevated 30 to 49, High 50 to 69, Severe 70 and over. Each score traces to the indicators in the detail panel.
- Low area
- Elevated area
- High area
- Severe area
- GDACS alert: orange or red, or scored for an area
- USGS streamgage
Maricopa County, AZ, United States
Phoenix metro: extreme heat, Colorado and Salt River water supply, peak power demand.
US community · 50 km analysis footprint · data completeness 100%
Composite risk
72 / 100
Pillar scores
- Water29
- Food21
- Energy36
- Acute hazard98
Why this score
- 7-day mean flow of 2,005 cfs is at the 99th percentile for the date at USGS 09498500: high water. Acute hazard · USGS
- FEMA NRI heat wave risk score of 100.0 for Maricopa County, AZ. Energy · FEMA NRI
- FEMA National Risk Index drought risk score for Maricopa County, AZ is 97.7 (national percentile score). Water · FEMA NRI
- 30-day rainfall 117.8 mm is +3.1 SD above normal (21.2 mm median): saturated ground raises flood potential. Acute hazard · NASA POWER
- Community resilience score of 18.0 for Maricopa County, AZ (higher is more resilient). Energy · FEMA NRI
Anomalies flagged
- Rainfall surplus: 30-day index +3.1 SD
- Cold anomaly: 14-day Tmax -1.9 SD
- High streamflow: 99th percentile
All indicators
Water: 4 indicators
| Indicator | Value | Stress | Weight | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drought risk (FEMA NRI) | 98/100 | 98 | 0.15 | FEMA NRI |
| Drought Monitor coverage | 83% D1+ | 58 | 0.25 | Drought Monitor |
| 90-day rainfall | +3.1 SD | 0 | 0.35 | NASA POWER |
| Streamflow, SALT RIVER NEAR ROOSEVELT, AZ | 99th pct | 0 | 0.25 | USGS |
Food: 4 indicators
| Indicator | Value | Stress | Weight | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Agricultural drought (Drought Monitor) | 83% D1+ | 58 | 0.25 | Drought Monitor |
| Social vulnerability (FEMA NRI) | 27/100 | 27 | 0.15 | FEMA NRI |
| Growing-period rainfall (30/90-day blend) | +3.1 SD | 0 | 0.30 | NASA POWER |
| Heat stress on crops and livestock | -1.9 SD | 0 | 0.20 | NASA POWER |
Energy: 5 indicators
| Indicator | Value | Stress | Weight | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heat wave risk (FEMA NRI) | 100/100 | 100 | 0.20 | FEMA NRI |
| Low community resilience (FEMA NRI) | 18/100 | 82 | 0.15 | FEMA NRI |
| Cooling-demand heat anomaly | -1.9 SD | 0 | 0.30 | NASA POWER |
| Hot days in the last 30 | 0 days | 0 | 0.15 | NASA POWER |
| Low flow (hydropower and plant cooling) | 99th pct | 0 | 0.10 | USGS |
Acute hazard: 4 indicators
| Indicator | Value | Stress | Weight | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| High streamflow | 99th pct | 81 | max | USGS |
| Excess 30-day rainfall (flood potential) | +3.1 SD | 70 | max | NASA POWER |
| Tropical cyclone: Tropical Cyclone POLO-26 | Red, 505 km | 9 | max | GDACS |
| Drought: Drought in Mexico, United States | Green, 690 km | 5 | max | GDACS |
Standardized against 1991-2020 for the same dates (SPI-style; below -1.5 is severe deficit). Today +3.1 SD; 2026-10-29: median +1.5 SD, 80% interval +1.5 SD to +2.5 SD.
- Observed
- Forecast median
- 80% interval (P10 to P90)
Data table
| Date | Observed or median | 80% interval |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | -1.5 | |
| 2026-06-01 | -1.3 | |
| 2026-07-01 | -0.4 | |
| 2026-07-31 | +0.9 | |
| 2026-08-30 | +0.5 | |
| 2026-09-29 | +3.1 | |
| 2026-10-06 | +3.1 | +3.1 to +3.1 |
| 2026-10-13 | +3.1 | +3.1 to +3.1 |
| 2026-10-20 | +1.5 | +1.5 to +1.9 |
| 2026-10-29 | +1.5 | +1.5 to +2.5 |
Composite recomputed under each forecast member; hazards and structural indicators held at current values. 2026-10-29: median 62, 80% interval 62 to 65.
- Current score
- Forecast median
- 80% interval (P10 to P90)
Data table
| Date | Observed or median | 80% interval |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-29 | 72 | |
| 2026-10-06 | 72 | 72 to 72 |
| 2026-10-13 | 65 | 65 to 67 |
| 2026-10-20 | 62 | 62 to 65 |
| 2026-10-29 | 62 | 62 to 65 |
Forecast check: in 138 hindcasts since 2021, the 30-day rainfall-index error was 0.42 SD vs 0.62 SD for a no-change forecast (32% better). Spread inflation 1.05x; held-out interval coverage 79% raw, 84% calibrated (target 80%). Heat outlook: AR(1), phi 0.759.
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